The question traders keep asking is simple. Will there be a crypto crash in 2026, or has it already begun? Big drops in this market always follow the same pattern. In other words, Bitcoin completes the top of the cycle, sentiment peaks, and a major correction begins in a few weeks.
So before we talk about the timeline of the crash, we need to see if Bitcoin has already surpassed its all-time high. The normal peak window has passed, but the keytop signal has not yet been triggered. If the top is still far away, the crash window will move to 2026. Here’s how the data is combined:
Bitcoin’s 4-year supply clock provides first clue of crypto crash
Bitcoin runs on a predictable schedule. Every 210,000 blocks, the block reward is halved. This reduces new supply and increases prices, typically for 12 to 18 months. Previous cycles worked the same way. The 2012 half-life peaked after about 13 months, the 2016 half-life peaked after about 17 months, and the 2020 half-life peaked after about 18 months.
According to this pattern, the April 20, 2024 halving would point to a peak between July and October 2025. Bitcoin even reached $126,000 in early October, which looked like a textbook cycle top at the time.
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However, one confirmation was missing. The Pi-Cycle Top indicator, which showed all major peaks within 1-2 days, did not cross. Without this crossover, the October high would be a mid-cycle high rather than a final peak. That begs the question. What kept this cycle alive?
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Why is this cycle taking longer than usual?
Two forces extended this cycle beyond its normal timing.
First, ETF flows absorbed more supply than miners produced. Since the beginning of 2024, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have collected over $60 billion. Miners are producing approximately 13,875 BTC per month, worth approximately $1.4 billion at current prices. During periods of strong inflows, ETFs absorbed $4 billion to $5 billion per month, removing new supply faster than the network could create it.
Second, global liquidity remains high. Money supplies across major economies are still up more than 6% year-on-year, central banks have delayed tightening, and foreign exchange reserves remain high.
Strong liquidity slows depletion and continues to support risk assets. These two drivers pushed the cycle further than normal half-lives would allow. With this background, let’s move on to the most accurate timing tool for the final peak: the Pi-Cycle Top Indicator.
Pi-Cycle: What is Pi-Cycle and what the updated numbers say?
The Pi-Cycle Top indicator compares two moving averages that are twice the 111-day average and the 350-day average. If the 111-day line rises above the slower line, Bitcoin is typically 1-2 days away from its final high. The signal is accurate on all major cycles.
As of November 11, 2025:
111 day average: $113,394 2×350 day average: $205,767 Gap: $92,373
To predict when the lines will intersect, look at the slope of the 111-day average. In recent months, prices have increased between $200 and $400 per day. At $200 per day, the crossover is approximately 462 days away, pointing to February 2027. At $320 per day, the “lines intersect” is approximately 289 days away, pointing to August 2026. At $400 per day, the crossover is approximately 231 days away, pointing to June 2026.
This places Pi-Cycle’s realistic window between June and September 2026. Pi-Cycle has never missed a major peak, so the October 2025 high is unlikely to be its final high. To understand how much Bitcoin can rise before a crypto crash occurs, let’s move on to valuation, or MVRV Z-score.
MVRV: What to measure and when to reach the risk zone
MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, which reflects the average price at which all coins last moved. High MVRV means holders are sitting on large amounts of unrealized gains, which in past cycles culminated when MVRV spiked into extreme zones.
As of November 12, 2025:
Market value: $2.05 trillion MVRV: 1.81
This means the realized value would be nearly $1.13 trillion. Historical cycle peaks typically formed when MVRV reached between 3.0 and 7.0. The warning zone for this cycle is 3.0 to 3.5.
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At MVRV 3.0, Bitcoin’s market value is close to $3.39 trillion, which equates to approximately $174,000 per coin. At MVRV 3.5, the market value would be approximately $3.96 trillion, or approximately $203,000 per coin. These are the valuation limits at which markets are usually volatile.
The top of Pi-Cycle also falls between the following MVRV-driven predictions.
MVRV typically enters this zone about a month before the Pi-Cycle crossover. If the crossover occurs in June 2026, MVRV will overheat in May. If it occurs in August, the risk increases in June or July. If it’s September, the pressure will shift to July or August. This places the MVRV risk window between May and August 2026, depending on how quickly Pi-Cycle’s 111-day average rises.
Global Liquidity Index: Why it matters after Bitcoin MVRV
Bitcoin does not only rely on internal metrics. The liquidity situation will determine how long the eventual rally lasts. The Global Liquidity Index (GLI) tracks liquidity at major central banks and the broader money supply. Bitcoin reacts strongly to this index. In 2017 and 2021, GLI topped the market before Bitcoin, with Bitcoin peaking shortly after.
As of November 2025, the GLI is around 75, increasing by about 4 points per month. This pace comes as the index has increased by about 18 to 20 points over the past five months. The GLI peak typically forms around 90, and the next most liquid period is from March to May 2026.
Liquidity could stretch even deeper this year if the Fed eases monetary policy.
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This creates a clear alignment. MVRV overheats in spring 2026, GLI peaks in spring 2026, and Pi-Cycle shows momentum depletion in summer 2026. A mismatch between liquidity and momentum causes a classic bull trap. Liquidity peaks first, the market falls, and then Bitcoin plunges into a final higher peak as the Pi-Cycle completes.
Convergence: The Big Picture
All key indicators converge within a single broad construct. The half-life extension pushes the upper limit of the cycle to mid-2026. MVRV shows overheating between May and August 2026. GLI suggests a liquidity peak between March and May 2026. Pi-Cycle shows a final ceiling between June and September 2026.
This creates a period from March to August 2026 where liquidity and momentum collide. The market may form two peaks. One is the spring liquidity-driven high that is a bullish trap, and the last Pi-Cycle peak in the summer. The highest realistic range is $200,000 to $250,000, which fits the upper end of valuation and momentum timelines.
When will the virtual currency crash start in 2026?
In previous cycles, Bitcoin has fallen between 1 and 4 weeks from its last high. If the indicators align, the next big crypto crash in 2026 could start anytime between March and August, depending on which peak comes first.
However, the crash is only the first stage. A true bear market begins when highs and lows form for several weeks in a row. In past cycles, this confirmation has arrived 6 to 10 weeks after the final top. Applying that pattern here, if Bitcoin peaks between June and September 2026, a confirmed bear market will begin between August and November 2026. This is when long-term downward pressures prevail, rather than just a sharp correction.
If liquidity peaks first, Bitcoin could fall 25-35%, reset leverage, and then attempt a final rally. If liquidity and momentum match later on, the decline will begin after the Pi-Cycle crossover.
Expected decline:
A moderate decline of 50-60% will push Bitcoin towards $90,000-110,000 A deeper decline of 70% will push Bitcoin towards $70,000-80,000
ETF storage could slow the decline, leading to a long-term correction rather than a sudden crash. The important point remains: The 2025 high of $126,000 was not a cycle high. The real peak will be in 2026, with a crash window opening shortly thereafter.
