Onyx Coin has been attempting to recover after being under consistent selling pressure for most of the month. The recent pullback helped XCN regain short-term levels, triggering a technical breakout attempt.
Despite this move, underlying indicators remain weak. Several on-chain and liquidity indicators suggest that the breakout may be difficult to sustain, raising questions about whether the rally will continue.
Onyxcoin holder is on sale
Market sentiment around Onyx coin remains fragile as long-term holders have started reducing their exposure. The changes in the HODLer net position have shown a stable distribution over the past few days. Long-term holders have sold around 25 million XCN in the past 10 days. The move signals declining confidence among investors who typically value price stability.
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Rally momentum often weakens when long-term holders switch from accumulating to selling. These participants typically sell only when confidence weakens. Their exit adds supply to the market and limits upward momentum. The ongoing distribution suggests skepticism about the current breakout attempt rather than renewed optimism.
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Macro momentum further reinforces the cautious outlook. The Chaikin Money Flow Indicator has shown continued outflows over the past week. CMF is below the zero line, indicating that selling volume exceeds buying pressure. This change reflects funds flowing out of Onyx Coin rather than flowing into it.
Negative CMF readings often occur before a breakout failure. Without inflows, rising prices lack support and are prone to reversals. Increased outflows reduce liquidity and weaken demand. As long as the CMF remains negative, the chances of a sustained breakout rally remain limited.
Can XCN price sustain the breakout?
From a technical perspective, the XCN price is trying to break out of the downward wedge that has formed over the past three weeks. This pattern usually has bullish implications when confirmed. The measured move predicts a potential 28% upside with a target of $0.0088. Such a setup often attracts short-term traders looking for momentum.
However, the price structure remains weak. XCN is currently trading around $0.0072, below the major resistance level at $0.0077. Given the weakening sentiment and continued capital outflows, downside risks remain high. Failure to regain resistance could push the altcoin towards $0.0062. A significant decline to $0.0054 would extend the broader bearish trend.
A bullish scenario still exists if market conditions improve. To sustain the breakout, $0.0077 must turn into reliable support. Achieving this will demonstrate renewed commitment from the buyer. Under stronger participation, XCN could move towards $0.0088. A further push to $0.0100 would invalidate the bearish theory and confirm a possible trend reversal.
