XRP price is under new pressure after falling sharply near recent highs. The token has fallen nearly 10% in the past 24 hours and is still about 13% below the $1.67 level reached on February 15th. This decline is not just a routine decline.
This reflects deeper changes beneath the surface. While XRP whales are starting to sell, long-term holders (HODLers) are trying to absorb the supply. The outcome of this whale-hodler battle could play a decisive role in XRP price predictions in the coming weeks.
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Rising wedge and bearish divergence indicate sellers are defending key levels
XRP price has been trading within an ascending wedge pattern since early February. An ascending wedge is a bearish chart structure where price rises within a narrowing trend line, but the rise weakens over time. This pattern typically ends in failure, and the current structure shows a 26% chance of correction if support fails.
Momentum signals were already warning of growing weakness. From January 26th to February 15th, XRP price formed lower highs. This means that each rising peak was weaker than the previous one.
However, during the same period, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed even higher highs. RSI is an indicator that measures the strength of buying and selling. A hidden bearish divergence occurs when the RSI rises even as the price falls.
This indicates that the bull market is losing real support and the existing downward trend in XRP price is likely to continue.
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This divergence continued on February 15th, when XRP price briefly spiked to $1.67. Instead of breaking above the bearish wedge, the candlestick formed a long top core. This wick indicates that the seller actively intervened and forced the price to drop.
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Since that rejection, XRP price has already fallen by about 13%. The pullback has pushed the token near the lower end of the ascending wedge, putting the focus on breakdown risk. This technical weakness is central to XRP price predictions, as the structure favors sellers unless buyers regain control.
XRP whales could sell for millions of dollars, but holders are trying to avoid bankruptcy
The rejection around $1.67 was not random. On-chain data shows that XRP whales were actively sold during the rally. Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP saw their holdings decrease from 8.59 billion XRP to 8.58 billion XRP. This means that approximately 10 million XRP (equivalent to approximately $15 million at current prices) was sold during this period.
Smaller XRP whales holding 10 million to 100 million XRP were also sold in large quantities. Their holdings have decreased from 10.91 billion XRP (as of early February 12) to 10.87 billion XRP at the time of writing. This means an additional 40 million XRP worth approximately $60 million will enter the market. In total, XRP whales sold about 50 million XRP, worth about $75 million, during the recent rally attempt.
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At the same time, long-term holders started buying. Hodler’s net position change indicator shows that holders have increased their positions from approximately 127 million XRP on February 13 to approximately 150 million XRP now, an increase of 17%. This indicates that some investors are trying to absorb the whale supply and stabilize the market.
However, the scale of purchases remains limited. On February 1st, the same group accumulated over 337 million XRP in a single surge. By comparison, current buying is much weaker, still down more than 55%. This imbalance explains why XRP price failed to sustain the breakout and why XRP price predictions remain uncertain.
The market is currently embroiled in a battle between XRP whales, who distribute supply, and holders, who seek to prevent further correction. And long-term holders still lack power.
XRP price prediction depends on whether $1.26 support holds
The most important level for XRP price is currently around $1.26. According to cost-based data, over 442 million XRP was accumulated between $1.27 and $1.28. The cost base represents the price at which the investor purchased the coin. When the price returns to this level, holders often defend the price to avoid losses.
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This makes the $1.26 zone a major level on the chart and the last major support before a bigger breakdown. If XRP price sustains above this level, stabilization will continue and the XRP price prediction could head towards recovery. However, the outlook changes quickly once the XRP price falls below $1.26. However, the wedge breakdown could begin the moment the 12-hour XRP price candle closes below the wedge’s lower trendline, i.e. $1.35.
Below this level, the next support is near $1.16 and then $1.06. These levels match the full breakdown prediction of the rising wedge. This means that if the selling pressure continues, the XRP price could fall towards the $1 zone. Such a move would confirm that the XRP whales are now in control of the trend.
On the upside, XRP price needs to regain $1.48 to reduce the immediate bearish pressure. A strong rally above $1.67 would invalidate the wedge pattern and indicate that buyers have regained control.
For now, XRP price predictions are still tied to this dispute with the whaler. If long-term holders fail to absorb the ongoing whale sell-off, a rising wedge breakdown could push XRP closer to $1. Future sessions will decide who wins.
