XRP price keeps hitting the same ceiling and we finally know why. The focus remains fixed at the $2 level. XRP touched it once in early January 2026, regained the short-term trend line, and even briefly rose above the trend line. However, rallies continue to fail. The real question is not whether XRP can reach $2. It’s about whether the market can support what’s directly below it.
On the 12-hour chart, XRP is trading around $1.87, down about 4% over the past week. This weakness occurred despite visible buying interest and repeated attempts to regain key levels. To understand why these attempts fail, the story needs to start with key reuse.
XRP EMA Retrieval is the first step, but only one worked
On the 12-hour time frame, the most important short-term signal for XRP is the 20-period exponential moving average. The 20-EMA tracks the direction of short-term trends. When price recovers and holds with volume, momentum usually shifts higher.
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XRP has recovered the 20-EMA several times since December. Most of those attempts failed, but there was one attempt that did.
On January 1st and January 2nd, XRP regained the 20-EMA due to strong buying volume. More importantly, a larger amount of green candles were generated instead of being sold immediately after collection. It was important to confirm that. From January 2nd to January 6th, XRP rose about 28%, the strongest move this month.
A successful recall indicates that the EMA itself is not the problem. The question is how the collection will be done.
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Compare that to subsequent attempts. Around December 9th and December 20th, XRP briefly rose above the 20-EMA, but volume quickly declined. Even when selling pressure appeared, follow-through buying did not emerge, and prices remained below average. The same pattern was repeated on January 28th. XRP recovered the 20-EMA with moderate volume, but the next session failed to build on it. Selling pressure appeared.
It’s easy to take home. EMA recovery requires strong follow-up purchaser numbers. Without it, they are temporary signals and not a change in trend. But even if trading volumes improve, XRP faces another problem.
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The selling wall above the EMA is the reason why the rally stalled.
If XRP price regains the 20-EMA around $1.94 (current position), the price will immediately move into the high supply zone.
According to on-chain cost-based data, there is a major cluster between $1.96 and $1.98, containing approximately 1.86 billion XRP. This is not on a psychological level. It is a concentration of the last coins purchased in that range. When the price returns there, many holders sell to break even or reduce their exposure.
This is why just regaining the EMA is not enough. The withdrawal of the EMA pushes the price directly into this wall of supply. If the buying pressure is not strong enough to absorb it, the rally will fail even after it recovers.
The difference will be visible in early January. During the rally from January 1st to 6th, outflows to exchanges spiked, indicating that coins were leaving exchanges rather than being sent for sale.
The outflow amount increased from approximately 8.9 million XRP to approximately 38.5 million XRP. This sustained demand drove price fluctuations within supply clusters. Even though the outflow amount was much smaller than the size of the wall, the spike in outflow amount of over 330% suggests that holders may not have sold at the wall.
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Recent attempts lack such support and conviction. On January 28, the exchange’s outflow amount temporarily increased to approximately 18.1 million XRP, contributing to the rise in the XRP price during the day. However, by January 29th, the outflow had returned to nearly 5.4 million XRP.
This explains why XRP continues to stall just below $2. The market is not rejecting this number. Struggles to show the belief necessary to absorb the supply behind it.
Whales are buying, but demand is still not enough
Whale behavior adds nuance, but the conclusion remains the same.
Wallets holding 10 million to 100 million XRP have seen their balances increase from approximately 11.03 billion XRP to 11.19 billion XRP since January 21, reaching almost 160 million XRP. It shows accumulation. Large wallets with over 1 billion XRP showed mixed activity, with holdings increasing by just 30 million.
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This shows that whales are positioning rather than forcing prices.
Compared to the 1.86 billion XRP sales wall, the current whale accumulation and spot demand is not large enough to overwhelm the supply. Buying does exist, but it is uneven and short-lived. Without sustained replacement runoff, addition of whales, or volume expansion, the wall remains intact.
Levels that determine whether XRP price breaks or falls again
The roadmap is now clear.
$1.94–$1.95: First step. A clean recovery pushes XRP above the 20-EMA. $1.99: Real Trigger. If the 12-hour close is above this level, the supply cluster will collapse. Above $1.99, the likelihood of a follow-through increases as the sell wall thins, targeting $2.04 and even $2.19. On the downside, a 12-hour close below $1.80 would invalidate the setup and signal another sign of weakness.
There is no need to prove that XRP can reach $2. It’s already been done. Sustained buying is required to absorb the 1.86 billion XRP just below that level. Until that happens, you’ll keep hitting the same wall every time you rebound.
