Bitcoin’s recent price trend continues to show weakness as the asset struggles to find direction amid bearish macro signals, pointing to a bullish or neutral forecast.
The lack of momentum has kept BTC declining for several days, but the Federal Open Market Committee’s expected 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday could change sentiment. Whether this becomes a catalyst will largely depend on how short-term holders behave.
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Bitcoin holders may face some challenges
The STH to LTH supply ratio recently increased from 18.3% to 18.5%, breaking the upper limit of 17.6%. This indicates the increasing presence of short-term holders in Bitcoin’s supply structure.
Their presence increases speculative activity and can lead to more liquidity as well as more intraday volatility. This shift highlights the potential for market instability if conditions change rapidly.
This high ratio also suggests that STH has more influence over Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory. The tendency to sell at a profit has historically limited recovery rates. If the FOMC’s interest rate decision triggers a rise, the trend in STH will determine whether the momentum continues or weakens.
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Bitcoin’s supply to profit ratio increased from 66.5% to 67.3%, a modest increase of 1.2%. While the upward movement is positive, the indicator is still well below the 98.4% high band typically seen during strong bullish phases. This indicates that the majority of the supply is still underwater, reflecting a cautious environment rather than euphoric intensity.
Such suppressed profitability is consistent with early-stage accumulation behavior. Investors appear to be selective and patient, waiting for stronger macro indicators before committing. This profitability gap leaves room for widening and strong follow-through if risk appetite increases as a result of FOMC rate cuts.
BTC price waits for escape
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is $90,399, just below the downtrend that has lasted a month and a half. BTC is trying to push the $90,400 support level, which could be the first step towards a trend reversal.
If macro conditions align and interest rate cuts restore market-wide optimism, BTC could rebound sharply. A clean rebound from $90,400 could trigger a retest of $95,000, and breaking that resistance would open a clear path to the long-anticipated $100,000 level and prove Bitcoin price predictions true.
However, Bitcoin could struggle to maintain upward pressure if short-term holders intensify their selling. A rejection from $95,000 or failure to break the downtrend could send BTC back to $86,822, invalidating the bullish scenario.
