Bitcoin’s recent drop below $100,000 tested investors’ nerves and the market’s faith. However, the largest cryptocurrency quickly rebounded, reaffirming its new psychological low.
Analysts generally agree that despite the short-term turmoil, Bitcoin’s structural trends remain intact and have bullish potential. Most analysts view the US government shutdown as a significant constraint on current market prices.
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Plan B: Midcycle instead of Mania
PlanB, creators of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, sees this adjustment as an intermediate pause in the cycle. His data shows Bitcoin has been above $100,000 for six consecutive months. This is a major shift from resistance to support.
He argues that the RSI is still around 66 and the market has not reached its euphoria yet. This is well below the 80-plus overheating level of previous cycle highs.
“If it wasn’t for that manic phase, I probably wouldn’t have gotten to the top where I ended up,” he says.
PlanB predicts that if Bitcoin continues to diverge from its realized price (a hallmark of the ongoing bull market), the next major leg high could target the $250,000 to $500,000 range.
Arthur Hayes: Stay ahead of stealth QE
Arthur Hayes links Bitcoin’s short-term weakness to the US dollar’s liquidity squeeze. Since the US debt ceiling was raised in July, the Treasury General Account (TGA) has ballooned, draining liquidity from the market.
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Hayes points out that this dynamic has caused both Bitcoin and the dollar liquidity index to decline simultaneously.
However, he predicts that the upcoming reversal will be the beginning of “stealth QE” once the US government resumes operations and reduces the TGA balance.
He argues that the Fed expands its balance sheet by injecting liquidity indirectly through its standing repurchase facility, without formally calling it quantitative easing.
In his words: “Bitcoin will rise when the Fed starts cashing politicians’ checks.”
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Raul Pal: A flood of liquidity awaits
Raoul Pal’s liquidity model depicts a similar picture. His Global Macro Investor (GMI) Liquidity Index, which tracks global money supply and credit, continues its long-term upward trend.
Pal calls the current phase a “window of suffering,” where tight liquidity and investor fear will test conviction. But he expects a sharp turnaround soon.
Treasury spending will inject $250 billion to $350 billion into the market, quantitative tightening will end, and interest rate cuts will continue.
“When this number goes up, all numbers go up,” Pal said, as liquidity expands globally, from the U.S. to China to Japan.
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Outlook: Accumulation before expansion
Regardless of the model, the consensus is that Bitcoin has survived the liquidity-driven correction. Large holders are buying, technical support is holding, and macro settings are pointing to renewed liquidity expansion.
Short-term volatility is likely to continue as fiscal and monetary gears realign, but structurally, the next phase is expected to see gradual recovery and accumulation.
If liquidity metrics start rising again in Q1 2026, Hayes and Pal suggest that Bitcoin’s next rally could develop from the same foundation it survived last time: the $100,000 crash test.
Additionally, CryptoQuant data shows that large Bitcoin holders (wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC) have added approximately 29,600 BTC in the past week, equating to approximately $3 billion in value.
Their total balance increased to 3.504 million BTC. This was the first major accumulation phase since September.
The buying spree came as retail sentiment plummeted and ETFs recorded $2 billion in outflows.
Analysts are interpreting this divergence as a sign that institutional investors are quietly reloading and consolidating Bitcoin’s support zone around $100,000.
