BitMine stock is starting to show early signs of recovery. BMNR rose 6% before the close of trading on February 13th and is up 7.32% over the past five days. This recovery came despite Ethereum, which Bitmine tracks closely due to its ETH financial exposure, down 3.3% over the past week. This divergence suggests that BitMine’s stock price may be trying to catch up.
BMNR’s chart also shows that this rebound may be weak, even though large companies like Citigroup are increasing their holdings in BMNR every quarter. The bearish structure remains active and the next few trading sessions could determine whether Bitmine continues its recovery or enters another significant decline.
Bear flag structure indicates an attempt at recovery, but bankruptcy risk remains
BitMine stock price has been trading within a bear flag pattern since early February. A bearish flag forms after a sharp decline, followed by a temporary uptrend. This pattern often leads to further declines if buyers are unable to fully regain control.
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From December 10, 2025 to February 5, 2026, BitMine’s stock price fell by nearly 60%. This steep drop created the “polar” phase of the pattern. Since February 5, the stock has rallied about 26%, forming a bearish “flag” pattern that signals an attempt at recovery.
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However, this recovery remains within a bearish structure. Unless the stock price breaks above a key resistance level, this pullback could be just a pause and lead to another drop.
If the bearish flag is confirmed, Bitmine stock could fall nearly 60% from the lower trendline breakout point. This raises important questions. Even though BitMine’s stock price is recovering, why is the risk of bankruptcy still high?
The answer becomes clearer when we look at momentum metrics.
Hidden bearish divergence shows BMNR sellers still maintain control
Momentum analysis using the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signs of underlying weakness. RSI is an indicator that measures buying and selling strength on a scale of 0 to 100. If the RSI rises when prices are depressed, it can indicate that buyer strength is weakening.
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BitMine stock price formed a hidden bearish divergence between November 18, 2025 and February 9, 2026. During this period, the price formed lower highs and the RSI formed higher highs. This pattern usually indicates that sellers are still in control and further declines are likely to follow.
After this divergence appeared, BitMine’s stock price fell more than 14%.
Currently, a similar composition appears to be forming again. Although the RSI has started to rise, the price is still below the major resistance near $21.57. If the stock price fails to break above this level, we could see another bearish divergence.
This increases the chances of breaking out of the bear flag pattern. However, momentum alone cannot fully explain price direction. Capital flow data provides another important clue.
Capital flows remain weak despite buying by institutional investors
Institutional interest in BitMine has increased significantly. Citigroup increased its holdings by more than 540%, and companies like BlackRock and BNY Mellon also increased their exposure. Typically, such buying would support higher prices.
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While Fintel’s snapshot shows the addition of Citigroup, it also highlights some BMNR dumping by companies such as Baird Financial and Resource Investment Advisors, which could be concerning for prices.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows a similar situation. CMF measures whether large investors are putting money into or taking money out of an asset. If the CMF remains below zero, it indicates that the entire capital is still flowing out of the asset.
BitMine’s CMF has started to rise gradually, indicating that the selling pressure is slowing down. However, the indicator is still below the zero line. This means that overall institutional buying has not yet completely reversed the overall selling trend. This creates conflict. While some large companies have increased their exposure, overall large capital flows remain cautious, as highlighted in previous snapshots.
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This explains why the recovery in BitMine’s stock price still looks weak.
The price level will determine whether BitMine stock price recovers or falls
BitMine’s stock price is currently at a critical level. If BMNR breaks above the resistance between $21.57 and $21.74, the bearish structure will weaken for the time being. As a result, if ETH also gains momentum, the stock price could rise towards $29.60 or even $34.03.
Such a move would confirm that buyers have regained control. However, downside risks remain significant.
If BMNR stock price falls below the $20.02 support level, a bear flag breakdown could begin. This could send the stock towards lower support levels at $15.05 and $11.22. If a complete breakdown occurs, the stock could eventually head towards $8.36.
For now, Bitmine’s stock price is at a tipping point. Citigroup’s aggressive accumulation shows the confidence of financial institutions. However, bearish momentum and weak capital inflows still limit the strength of the recovery.
The next few trading sessions will likely determine whether Tom Lee’s BMNR follows institutional optimism higher or confirms a bearish breakdown pattern.
