Cardano’s price has fallen into an uncomfortable place. It has fallen about 6% in the past seven days and has barely moved in the past 24 hours. His flat behavior reflects hesitation.
The price has maintained one key trend line for the past few days without breaking through the lows or rising. This same line decided Cardano’s fate once before. The market is currently facing a frequently asked question. Is this support sustained because buyers are intervening or because sellers are simply waiting?
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Trend support strengthens as volume weakens below the surface.
The most important level at the moment is Cardano’s 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). EMAs give more weight to recent prices and can help indicate if short-term trend support is intact.
This line is important because it has already failed once. On December 11th, Cardano lost its 20-day EMA and subsequently recorded a near 25% drop. This move turned a slow pullback into a rapid decline.
This time the EMA is still holding. However, the volume tells a less pleasant story.
This warning comes from an on-balance volume (OBV). OBV tracks whether trading volume is flowing into rising candlesticks or flowing out through falling candlesticks. When OBV declines while prices are moving more than sideways, it often indicates quiet selling rather than healthy demand.
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From December 28th to January 5th, the price of Cardano was on an upward trend, while OBV was on a downward trend. Sellers were joining forces to distribute. Since then, OBV has fallen below the recent trend line, suggesting that volume support is still weakening without improving.
So why hasn’t the price of ADA fallen yet? This question leads directly to what’s happening on-chain.
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The push buy is real as whales add about 100 million coins
Despite the drop in OBV, Cardano has not collapsed as large holders are buying on the spurts. On-chain data shows clear accumulation near the trend line.
Here’s what the numbers say: The balance of wallets holding 1 million to 10 million ADA increased from approximately 5.49 billion ADA to 5.51 billion ADA, with approximately 20 million ADA added since January 11th.
Over the same period, wallets holding 10 million to 100 million ADA increased their holdings from approximately 13.44 billion ADA to 13.52 billion ADA, adding approximately 80 million ADA. In total, whales added nearly 100 million ADA during this period. At current prices, this equates to a roughly $40 million buy-in.
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Momentum data supports this behavior.
The Money Flow Index (MFI), which tracks purchasing pressure by combining price and volume, is trending upward. This shows that money is flowing into Cardano despite widespread beliefs remaining mixed. This explains the conflict.
While sellers lack follow-through, buyers, including whales, continue to absorb the decline. However, accumulation alone does not guarantee an increase. For direction, the market remains focused on derivatives and pricing structures.
Derivatives positioning shows why $0.40 will determine the next Cardano price move
Derivative data requires additional critical attention. Last 24 hours:
Sponsored Sponsored Smart Money’s positioning remains largely unchanged despite being net long. (Rebound expectations are minimal) New long positions have not accumulated significantly The top 100 addresses and regular whale traders remain net short, and no meaningful long positions have been accumulated.
This action means the trader is expecting a move but is not yet committed to the upside.
This brings the focus back to the price level. Since January 7th, Cardano has been trading in a narrow range between $0.37 and $0.40. The reason $0.40 is important is simple. ADA lost this level on January 8th and has not recovered since.
A clean move above $0.40 and subsequent acceptance to $0.43 would indicate a trend recovery. For that to happen, it will also be necessary for OBV to start rising steadily and for actual demand to be confirmed.
The downside is more obvious. If the price closes below $0.37 for the day, the structure will weaken and start moving towards $0.35, but if the sell-off accelerates, it could return to $0.31.
