Cardano price continues to be under pressure on higher time frames and is still down around 12% month-on-month. But beneath that tenuous surface, a different story is taking shape. Momentum is steady, selling pressure is easing, and one of Cardano’s largest whale populations is starting to add aggressively.
This shift is not random. This is roughly consistent with a bullish divergence, the structure that preceded the sharp rise in ADA.
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Bullish RSI divergence suggests a possible trend reversal
The first part of the setup is displayed on the daily chart.
From November 21st to December 18th, Cardano price hit new lows, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit higher lows. RSI measures momentum. If the RSI improves even as prices fall, it indicates that sellers are losing power even though prices are still falling. This is a typical bullish RSI divergence and is often associated with a trend reversal rather than a short-term pullback.
A similar structure appeared earlier in this cycle, from late November to early December. After this divergence held, Cardano rebounded by nearly 30% within 8 days.
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RSI does not work alone. What matters now is whether on-chain actions confirm that sellers are actually exiting.
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Whales intervene to reduce coin activity
On-chain data shows strong support.
Cardano’s second largest cluster of whales, wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA, have been increasing their holdings since December 20th. Its balance increased from 3.74 billion ADA to 3.84 billion ADA, an increase of approximately 100 million ADA. At current prices, this equates to approximately $36 million added during the period of weak price action.
This purchase directly coincides with the change in the spent coin age band index. This metric tracks the number of coins moved and often reflects sales activity. On December 16th, spent coins reached their peak and whales were divvying up the supply. Once the spent coins decreased, whale accumulation resumed.
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The pattern is consistent.
When the coin’s activity increases (perhaps selling pressure), the whale pulls back. Whales are added as sales activity weakens.
This behavior suggests that large holders are reacting to reduced selling pressure rather than pursuing price strength. This strengthens the bullish RSI divergence signal and indicates that weakening selling pressure is gaining support from the big whales.
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Key Cardano price levels that will determine the outcome
Even with improved momentum and whale accumulation, price confirmation remains important.
Cardano will need to regain key resistance levels to move beyond the attempted reversal. The first meaningful signal of strength appears above $0.44, but the real confirmation lies around $0.47. A clean break above this zone would open the door to $0.50, which is expected to be roughly in line with the previous post-divergence rally and a key psychological level.
If momentum continues and whale accumulation continues, $0.50 to $0.55 is achievable under supportive market conditions.
Downside risks remain clear. If ADA falls by $0.34, the reversal theory will weaken sharply. A break below this level would signal a return of selling pressure. And history suggests that whales may begin to be put up for sale around that time.
