Cardano price is trading near its lowest level this year. The token has fallen about 24% in the past 30 days and about 5% in the past 24 hours, hovering around its year-to-date low of $0.37. What makes this move stand out is not just the magnitude of the decline, but the structure behind it.
In just two months, Cardano has completed two separate bearish continuation breakdowns, putting new pressure on the chart and increasing the risk of a deeper move.
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Two bear market declines in two months suggest structural weaknesses
The first breakdown formed in early November. ADA held a bearish flag until late October, but it broke around November 11th. This move led to a sharp decline, with prices down approximately 38% from the flag’s high.
After a short period of stability, Cardano repeated this pattern. The second bearish flag developed from late November to early December. On December 11th, ADA broke down again, and was confirmed to continue for the second time in just two months.
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When the market repeats a bearish continuation pattern without a meaningful recovery, it indicates continued seller control rather than panic selling. If the current breakdown follows the same reading movement logic as the beginning, the downside target will begin to cluster around the $0.25 zone.
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Why this weakness itself can limit further damage
Despite the bearish structure, there are two factors that slightly cushion the downside risk.
First, derivatives positioning is already quite bearish. Long leverage is thin, with long positions of only about $27 million, while short exposure is 5x to nearly $135 million, according to Gate liquidation data. Most long-term liquidation clusters end around $0.36, implying that forced selling pressure drops sharply at that level. Fewer crowded longs reduces the chance of a liquidation cascade.
Second, the behavior of long-term holders is stable. As can be seen from the “Spent Coin” metric, which groups coin movements by cohort, the 1-2 year cohorts, which are often considered to be more convict holders, have seen significantly lower spending.
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Coins moved by this group decreased from 666.24 million ADA to just 2.48 million ADA since December 10, a decrease of almost 99.6%. This suggests that selling pressure from eager holders is easing, even though prices remain depressed.
Simply put, ADA weakness is scaring leverage and dampening long-term selling, which could act as a temporary brake in times of market-wide stress.
Key ADA price levels to watch
Cardano price chart remains fragile. The most important near-term support is $0.36. The same level is also highlighted in the previously shared liquidation map.
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A clean break below that opens the door to $0.33 and from there a measured breakdown target around $0.25 comes into focus.
In case of a bullish reset, ADA should regain $0.48. Without it, the rally will remain corrective rather than trend changing.
For now, Cardano is in a precarious situation.
Two breakdowns over two months define the trend. Weakness itself can slow down the fall. However, the risk of a $0.25 test cannot be ignored unless the structure is improved.
