Ethereum price continues to trade in a sideways structure that reflects a gradual decline rather than stability. ETH has struggled to generate sustained upward momentum. Although some long-term indicators are showing early signs of improvement, the exodus of new entrants is weighing on sentiment.
Due to this divergence, the outlook for Ethereum is mixed. Slower network growth is balanced by improved holder retention.
Decline in new Ethereum holders
Ethereum has seen a sharp decline in new addresses over the past few days. The number of new addresses per day decreased by nearly 36% within 48 hours, from 298,000 to 191,000. This contraction pushed Ethereum’s network growth indicator to its lowest level in two months.
It has been decelerating since the beginning of the month. Fewer new participants reduces intrinsic demand. Weak onboarding also points to hesitancy among retail investors. This trend has put pressure on ETH’s price performance and contributed to cautious market sentiment.
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The Ethereum holder retention rate provides deeper context: even as new holders are declining, remaining holders remain forever. This metric tracks the percentage of addresses that remain balanced over 30 consecutive days. This measures whether holders continue to hold on to their ETH rather than exiting their positions.
The ownership rate recently fell to 92.4%, the lowest level in four and a half years, and the lowest since September 2021. The decline confirmed that confidence among new holders was wavering.
However, the indicator has started to improve slowly, suggesting new stability among participants. Increased retention can strengthen structural support if maintained.
ETH price shows potential for rebound
Ethereum is trading at $1,904 at the time of writing, above the support level at $1,816. Although the price trend appears to be leveling off, the downward resistance line indicates a gradual downtrend. Without stronger demand, ETH remains vulnerable to continued decline.
The Chaikin Money Flow Indicator shows cautious optimism. CMF has moved into positive territory after a gradual upward trend. This move suggests an improvement in capital inflows. A shift from outflows to inflows is essential for a sustained recovery in Ethereum price.
If inflows continue and support holds, Ethereum could rebound from $1,816 and attempt a move toward $2,165. A break above this resistance will invalidate the current downtrend line. Such changes are likely to restore investor confidence and strengthen bullish momentum.
However, this outlook will be undermined by the inability to maintain positive capital flows. If the price falls below $1,816, the recovery theory is invalidated. In that scenario, Ethereum price could decline towards $1,600, increasing downside risk and reinforcing bearish dominance across the broader crypto market.
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