Hedera has struggled to regain momentum after its recent selloff, with price action remaining range-bound. HBAR has attempted to stabilize, but holder actions have weighed on sentiment and the recovery has stalled.
This hesitation could still benefit futures traders, as the positioning suggests a sharp move could ensue if a major level breaks.
Hedera traders have a lot to lose.
Derivatives data shows that traders shorting HBAR are exposed to significant risk if prices rise. The liquidation map shows that the largest cluster of short positions is around the $0.114 level. A change in this price would result in approximately $4.5 million in short-term liquidations and force rapid repurchases.
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Current positioning is still biased towards short rather than long. This imbalance reflects negative sentiment across the derivatives market. Concentrated short exposure increases the likelihood of spikes in volatility, especially if prices break through resistance and traders are forced to exit losing positions quickly.
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Macro indicators point to weakening investor participation. Chaikin money flow has been in a downward trend for almost two weeks, forming a continuous low. CMFs use price and volume to track the movement in and out of assets, which are important demand signals.
The fact that the indicator is below the zero line confirms that net outflows dominate HBAR. This behavior suggests that investors are reducing their exposure rather than accumulating it. Sustained outflows typically weigh on prices and slow any recovery attempts unless sentiment changes decisively.
HBAR price needs to secure this important support
At the time of writing, HBAR is trading around $0.108, hovering around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This level acts as an important pivot for the direction of the trend. Locking in this as support would increase the likelihood of a recovery and counter the prevailing bearish bias.
If the spill continues, HBAR may be unable to defend this zone. Under that scenario, the price could retreat towards a 2026 low around $0.102. Such a move would extend the downtrend and strengthen bearish momentum across spot and derivatives markets.
A bullish scenario requires a solid recovery of the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Switching it to support could push HBAR higher towards the 38.2% Fib near $0.112. A clearing of the $0.115 resistance is likely to trigger a short liquidation, invalidating bearish narratives and supporting a broader recovery.
