HBAR price is trying to stabilize, but the rebound is weakening. The token is up about 7% since January 20, but is still down nearly 8% in the past seven days. More importantly, the structure supporting the bullish breakout is starting to weaken behind the scenes.
The W-shaped recovery pattern is still in place for now. However, capital flows, sentiment, and whale behavior are no longer in line with what is needed for a clean continuation of the rally.
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Weak capital flows raise early doubts about breakout structure
HBAR price is still trading within the W pattern on the daily chart. This pattern is formed when price makes two similar lows, indicating that buyers intervened twice at the same level. If the HBAR price crosses the neckline above $0.135, the breakout theory may hold true.
The question is what’s going on underneath the pattern.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has started to decline. CMF uses price and volume to track whether large sums of money (institutional investors, ETFs, whales) are flowing into or out of an asset. During the rebound, CMF briefly rose above zero, indicating new inflows. That signal is now gone.
The CMF has returned below zero and is approaching the uptrend line that has been in place since late December. This suggests that capital is starting to move away from Hedera, even though the price has not yet broken support.
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The behavior of whales increases their vigilance. All large holder groups have largely maintained their balances, but have not made meaningful additions during the decline. Weakness typically accumulates as whales expect the breakout to continue.
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Their hesitation suggests uncertainty rather than confidence. Moreover, if CMF breaks through the trend line, the next capital outflow could come from whales.
Buying on the downside maintains $0.102, but sentiment collapses sharply
Despite weakening capital flows, HBAR prices have not yet broken out. The reason is that it is a popular buy.
The Money Flow Index (MFI), which is often used as an indicator for buying dips, has been on an upward trend since late December, while prices have been on a downward trend. MFIs measure buying and selling pressure using both price and volume. This bullish divergence indicates that buyers are entering the bull market rather than panicking and exiting. This behavior explains why the $0.102 support level has repeatedly held.
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However, if confidence wanes, buying the dip alone will not sustain a breakout. Even more so if Hedera Whales is not buying such a dip.
Market sentiment deteriorated sharply. Since January 19, positive sentiment has collapsed from about 29 to about 1.5, a drop of more than 94% in just a few days and the lowest monthly level.
This is important as sentiment has already been shown to be influencing prices earlier this month. Between January 6th and January 12th, positive sentiment dropped from about 20.8 to nearly 10.4. During the same period, HBAR price fell from about $0.132 to $0.114, a decline of about 14%.
The current decline in sentiment is much more severe than previous episodes. If this relationship holds, price pressure could increase rapidly if dip buyers exit or CMF outflows offset their contributions. Additionally, an indifferent whale may use this emotional trigger as a reason to dump.
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HBAR price level that determines whether the story collapses or survives
Now everything depends on a narrow range.
As long as HBAR price maintains its daily closing price of $0.102, the W pattern remains technically valid. A decisive break below this level will invalidate the structure and initially expose the downside towards $0.094. If the selling accelerates, $0.073 becomes a realistic downside target.
On the positive side, a breakout requires a change in behavior. CMF needs to regain the zero line, sentiment needs to stabilize and price needs to regain the $0.118 to $0.124 zone. Without these changes, the $0.135 neckline remains out of reach, as do hopes for a 31% breakout.
For now, HBAR prices are holding steady. But talk of a breakout is waning. If capital outflows continue and sentiment remains this fragile, the $0.102 level will cease to be support and begin to become the final test.
