HBAR price has been struggling to find direction this week. After declining 4.3% over the past seven days, it is currently trading around $0.21, which is a modest price move considering the network’s early momentum. On the monthly chart, HBAR fell 7.5%, and the once strong three-month trend eased to just an 8.5% gain.
Data now shows that optimism is waning, with sellers re-emerging after nearly two months of buyers dominating. This setting suggests that although a full-scale rally is unlikely for now, a recovery phase may emerge if important signals stabilize.
Sponsored Sponsored
Huge financial strength wanes, sellers return after several weeks of calm
The latest currency flow data shows a decisive change. After eight consecutive weeks of negative net inflows (meaning coins leaving exchanges), HBAR weekly flows have turned positive for the first time since late July.
This indicates that more tokens are currently moving onto exchanges, which is usually a sign that holders are preparing to sell.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
To put it in perspective, last week’s data showed an outflow of -10 million HBAR. This week, inflows reversed to +511,000 HBAR. This is an almost 100% complete reduction in buying pressure, indicating a clear change in sentiment.
The reversal coincides with weakness in Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a measure that combines price and volume to measure large or institutional funds. Since September 18th, CMF has formed a low price, indicating that major companies are gradually retreating.
It fell below zero on October 6th, confirming that selling pressure exceeds buying strength across major wallets.
Sponsored Sponsored
Although CMF is still negative, it has started to curl upwards slightly, suggesting that accumulation could return around the current support.
If CMF turns positive by the end of the week, it could indicate that buyers are pulling back and HBAR could avoid a major correction.
Smart Money Suggests Moderate Recovery, Not Rise in HBAR Prices
Despite weak large-scale capital flows, the Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks the positioning of sophisticated short-term traders and advanced investors, offers a glimmer of hope for HBAR prices. The index has continued to make new lows since September 25, suggesting that smaller but aggressive players are gradually rebuilding their exposures, even though overall market sentiment remains cautious.
This could support a short-term recovery towards $0.22-$0.23, especially if buying activity picks up before the end of the week. However, if the closing price falls below $0.20, that possibility will disappear and the HBAR price may fall.
For now, the market tone is defensive. Institutional money is cautious, sellers are returning and buyers are being selective. A full-scale rise in HBAR prices may be unexpected.
However, with smart money creeping higher and CMFs stabilizing and then net FX flows turning negative by the end of the week, HBAR could still look forward to a limited recovery unless sellers regain significant control by the end of the week.
