Lighter (LIT) is a decentralized perpetual futures exchange built on Ethereum Layer 2. After distributing 25% of the total supply through airdrops, investors expect LIT’s market capitalization to continue to rise.
Why do investors remain optimistic about Leiter’s potential and what risks should they consider now? In the next article, we will consider these questions in more detail.
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Light valuation beats Pump.fun and Jupiter
Previously, Reiter raised $68 million at a $1.5 billion valuation. Immediately after launch, Coinbase listed LIT on the LIGHTER-USD trading pair. The price is currently fluctuating around $2.7 to $2.9, giving it a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of approximately $2.7 billion.
After the airdrop, the market observed significant activity by whale investors. On-chain analytics account Lookonchain reported that at least three whale wallets deposited 9.98 million USDC into Lighter to purchase LIT.
The BeInCrypto report states that large buyers are absorbing the supply of LIT. This action will help maintain buying pressure and support the price. This suggests that some investors believe in the upside potential of LIT, especially in the early price discovery stage.
Despite being newly launched, Lighter’s valuation is higher than Pump.fun and Jupiter, according to data from CoinGecko. Lighter currently ranks fourth in the decentralized exchange (DEX) coin category, behind Hyperliquid, Aster, and Uniswap.
Investors believe Reiter’s FDV could reach more than $2.7 billion. They predict it could rise significantly.
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Investors expect light (LIT) valuations comparable to Aster and HyperLiquid
There are several reasons supporting this belief.
First, in terms of attention, writers clearly stand out. Dexu AI reported that Lighter (LIT) currently holds the highest mindshare among perpetual derivatives protocols.
After Jupiter and Hyperliquid, Lighter recorded a significant increase in the number of “smart followers”. Additionally, there is a strong community of writers at Maxis. It ranks third behind Hyperliquid and Aster.
Second, despite being recently launched, Lighter achieved 24-hour trading volumes comparable to Aster. The amount is close behind Hyperliquid. Lighter’s 7-day and 30-day trading volumes outperform both competitors.
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“Very close race. Hyperliquid. Lightweight. Aster. Only one company can win…” said investor Alex.
As a result, investors believe Leiter could reach an FDV similar to Aster, around $5.5 billion. This scenario suggests that the price of LIT could double from its current level of $2.7.
Some investors even expect LIT to overtake HYPE. Hyperliquid’s FDV is approximately $25 billion. This suggests a nearly 10-fold increase in LIT.
However, these comparisons rely heavily on hype-based sentiment. Some analysts strongly disagree.
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What about risks?
X user Henrik observed that the writer lost about 25% of his open interest over the past three weeks. He also compared the P/E ratios of the two projects. This comparison shows that LIT is trading at a higher valuation than HYPE despite weaker fundamentals.
“Given this, despite weaker fundamentals, LIT is currently more expensive than HYPE on both secondary and fully diluted metrics. Furthermore, while 100% of Hyperliquid’s proceeds are going toward share buybacks, LIT’s revenue distribution and token value generation remains uncertain. Fundamentally, there is no clear catalyst for LIT, and airdrop-related churn will continue for some time,” Henrik said.
Additionally, the decline in returns following the Token Generation Event (TGE) is also raising concerns. Analyst TylerD observed that Lighter’s revenue fell from $1.5 million per day on November 21 to $150,000 per day in December. This represents a 10x reduction.
Historical data shows that airdrop incentives often increase trading volume and temporarily increase revenue. But for long-term growth, Lighter needs to prove a clear advantage over its competitors. The project must also remain resilient to broader market headwinds.
