Bitcoin traders are facing new on-chain signals that suggest older coins are re-entering the market as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions. Analysts expect the Fed to cut rates at its December meeting, and the market has already priced in a 25 basis point cut.
However, on-chain activity shows uncertainties below the surface.
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Dormant Bitcoin supply recovers as market waits for policy clarity
Over 2,400 BTC aged over 10 years moved this week, activating over $215 million worth of long-dormant supply. These coins typically remain untouched, and movement often precedes distribution rather than accumulation.
At another traffic light, Coin Days Destroy is flashing again. This indicator highlights that older holders are moving Bitcoin around, often selling on strength.
While demand absorbed this supply earlier this year, analysts are now observing that experienced holders are pumping coins into the market while buyers are pulling back.
The return of old supply while demand is weak has historically weighed on price movements. ETF inflows remain weak, with net flows indicating less institutional investor appetite compared to recent peaks. This suggests that the rally may struggle unless liquidity returns.
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Institutional analysts remain confident in the broader cycle. Bernstein argues that Bitcoin may be breaking its four-year halving rhythm and entering a phase of increased adoption.
The company predicts that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2026 and peak at nearly $200,000 in 2027.
However, market direction now depends on the Federal Reserve. If policymakers cut rates as expected, liquidity could improve and risk assets could strengthen through early 2026.
A weaker dollar and lower cost of capital could support ETF demand and help absorb selling by long-term holders.
Delays and smaller rate cuts could create volatility. Coupled with a resurgence in supply, Bitcoin could face an even more severe correction before recovering.
Analysts have warned that strong bids will be needed to offset the resumption of aging supply.
For now, Bitcoin sits between changing on-chain behavior and macro expectations. Investors will be closely monitoring the FOMC’s signals to understand whether the next move strengthens market resilience or exposes further downside.
