After a volatile October, Stellar (XLM) prices entered November on a calm note, hovering around $0.30. Last month was a tough one, with prices down about 17%, but Stellar performed better than its peers, limiting its weekly loss to just over 6%.
On paper, November has historically been a strong month for Stellar. But this time, things seem less convincing. Charts and on-chain data are showing mixed signals: a weak and major trend, but subtle signs that a short-term rebound is about to form beneath it.
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Past November shows why Stellar setup looks vulnerable
Historically, November has been unpredictable for Stella. The token’s average return of +58% is impressive, driven by massive rallies such as +470% in 2024 and +159% in 2020.
But the median return tells the truth – (-5.67%). This means that most Novembers actually ended lower.
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That inconsistent pattern is also visible on today’s short-term XLM price chart. From October 31st to November 2nd, Stellar price has formed a low high, showing hesitation every time buyers move up.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the balance of buying and selling strength on a scale of 0 to 100, rose to new highs during the same period.
This discrepancy between price and RSI is known as a hidden bearish divergence. This usually means that even though Stellar’s price appears to be stable, buyers are losing energy, suggesting a potential downside downside.
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Unless Stellar regains stronger momentum, this fragile regime could last until early November.
Short-term capital flows show hope, but major investors remain silent
One bright spot is emerging in the money flow data. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a measure that tracks whether funds are entering or exiting the market, has turned slightly positive on shorter time frames and is currently around +0.04.
A positive CMF means more money is flowing into Stellar than going out of it, suggesting that short-term whales may return. While this does not confirm a trend reversal, it often suggests that selling pressure is gradually responding to some buying. This trend is even more pronounced as short-term CMF is rising while prices are correcting.
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However, zooming out to the 2-day chart, CMF is still hovering around -0.10, indicating that large holders and perhaps financial institutions have not yet regained their leverage.
Until this rises above zero, the recovery is likely to be short-lived despite short-term capital inflows.
Another source of tension is Bybit’s 7-day derivatives data. On the exchange, the short position is approximately $7.9 million, while the long position is approximately $4.3 million, a difference of nearly 84%.
This imbalance suggests that a short squeeze could occur if prices rise slightly. If that happens, short traders will be forced to buy back, potentially causing Stellar’s price to rise temporarily.
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But for now, its bounce setup is entirely dependent on short-term capital inflows, and the larger, more cautious picture remains.
Stellar price chart shows narrow ranges and key levels
On the 2-day chart, Stellar is trading inside a symmetrical triangle. This triangle is a structure that forms when buyers and sellers move in balance, but neither side is in control. The price has been moving within a range of $0.27-$0.35 for days, showing hesitation.
If Stellar closes below $0.27, the lower trendline of this triangle could break, paving the way for $0.21 and even $0.19. If that happens, it would confirm that October’s weakness remains dominant.
If XLM price manages to break above $0.35 and close above $0.37, it may try to retest the upper limit and reach $0.47. If the strength persists beyond that, it could move towards $0.52. However, the short-term RSI still suggests limited momentum to support such a move.
Overall, the direction of Stellar price in November will depend on which trendline is broken first. Weak RSI-driven momentum suggests that lower-ranking stocks are at risk, at least for now.
