Solana had a turbulent August. The token repeatedly tried to hold over $210, but was unable to maintain momentum and returned to range. At press time, Solana Price fell nearly $205, down 4.5% over the past 24 hours and about 1% over the past week. Monthly profits remained above 13%, with annual trends still positive at nearly 50%.
However, September could challenge this upward trend as chains and technical signals refer to potential debilitating.
Profit supply for nearly six months
One of the most important indicators is the percentage of supply in profit, measuring the number of coins that are currently more present value than cost basis.
The metric hit a six-month high of 96.56% on August 28th, and has since gone just 90%.
History shows that such highs often precede the revision of Solana’s prices. On July 13, the metric reached 96%, with Solana prices trading at around $205, falling 23% to $158.
Again, on August 13th, the metric peaked at 94.31%, triggering a 12% correction from $201 to $176. Then, on August 23, another peak of 95.13% brought an 8% slide from $204 to $187.
As metricbacks are near record highs, the risk of a deeper revision of SOL prices in September is increasing.
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Exchange balance enhances sales risk
That sales risk is strengthened by exchange balances. The amount of SOL held on centralized exchanges surged to over 32 million tokens on August 28, up from under 30 million that month. Typically, an increase in balance suggests that the owner is preparing for sale.
The correlation is clear. On August 14th, when the balance peaked above 32 million, Solana Price fell 8% from $192 to $176 within a few days.
Now, as the balance rises again, a similar setup is forming, pointing to updated downside pressures that could weigh heavily on Sol prices in September.
Solana’s price pattern suggests a bearish setup despite its aggressive history
The technical also aligns with this bearish outlook. Solana moves inside the rising wedges of the weekly chart. This is a pattern that often weakens momentum and can lead to a bearish continuation or inversion.
If Solana Price loses $195 and $182, the decline could be extended to $160, marking a 15-20% pullback. Interestingly, such pullbacks were seen earlier when the supply of exchange balances and profit margins surged. Violations under $182 may even examine the breakdown of bearish patterns.
However, the Bulls still have a way to regain their strength. A weekly deadline above $217 (the last local high) would negate the meaning of wedge’s bearish and pave the way for a higher target. Until then, the bias remains tilted downward.
This bearish technical setup is generally against a positive seasonality. Since 2021, Solana has earned 29%, 5.3%, 8.2% and 12.5% in September. However, 2025 may be the year this streak will take a break as profit supply and exchange balances rose at high prices.
Unless Sol manages a critical close of over $217, Solana Price in September could struggle with historic performance and even positive push for ETF-related optimism.
Disclaimer
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