Bitcoin is hovering around a much more important level than the overall price. Analysts focus on the zone representing the true market average price (TMMP), or the average on-chain acquisition price for non-mining investors.
According to CryptoQuant, this level is a psychological and structural fault line. Test whether your beliefs are strong enough to absorb supply or if cracks are starting to appear in your beliefs.
Bitcoin trades at “belief price” as $81,500, testing market conviction
Analyst opinion is now openly divided as on-chain indicators point to mid-cycle stress and technical resistance continues to cap upside. The result is a fragile conflict between:
Sponsored Sponsored Long-term holders are protecting their cost base and sellers are increasingly willing to exit at breakeven.
Against this backdrop, TMMP emerges as Bitcoin’s line in the sand. TMMP is more than just a technical indicator. It acts as a psychological anchor for the population and indicates the average price when holders first entered the market.
If Bitcoin trades at these levels, investors will have to choose between holding on to the uncertainty or selling at breakeven. This decision point increases market pressure and often sets the stage for the next big move.
CryptoQuant analyst Moreno highlights $81,500 as the TMMP, which is the price at which most real capital entered the market.
Historically, Bitcoin trading above this level has encouraged push buying and accumulation. However, losses often turn the same zone into resistance as investors try to exit near the average entry. That dynamic is now unfolding again.
“Investors are generally relieved when Bitcoin is trading above it. When the price loses it, the same level often turns into resistance, as those who bought near average cost take advantage of the pullback to exit,” Moreno explained.
The current test around $81,500 is forcing investors to decide whether to hold on through the uncertainty or sell at breakeven.
Previous cycles have shown that this zone can have a decisive impact. During the 2020-2021 bull market, TMMP repeatedly served as support. In 2022, confidence eroded and resistance became evident. What role it plays next could determine Bitcoin’s near-term direction.
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AVIV Ratio Shows Quiet Confidence Stress
Adding a behavioral layer to this picture is AVIV Ratio, an on-chain metric that compares active market valuations to realized valuations, with a specific focus on investor profitability. Unlike momentum indicators, AVIV reflects sentiment based on realized gains.
Currently, AVIV is shrinking towards the 0.8-0.9 range, a level historically associated with mid-cycle transitions, when markets do not collapse but do not fall into a definitive trend.
“If Bitcoin is above TMMP ($81,500) while AVIV is stable (0.8-0.9), it suggests investors are absorbing supply and protecting their cost base. If price loses TMMP and AVIV continues to compress, it means profitability is declining and confidence is weakening,” CryptoQuant analysts added.
In such an environment, weak hands are often put under pressure by long periods of stagnation rather than sudden drawdowns.
As unrealized profits decline, beliefs are quietly tested, setting the stage for either new accumulation or deeper exploration of demand.
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Technical resistance strengthens market paralysis as macro fears deepen debate
Bitcoin price trends have offered little reassurance so far. Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break above its year-to-date price, increasing hesitancy among momentum traders and technical participants.
Since this level cannot be regained, there is a growing view that the upside is limited at this point.
This technological impasse reflects a broader ideological divide in the market. Many veteran holders are still shaped by the 2021 peak and subsequent 70% drawdown, and appear increasingly sensitive to technical signals and cycle-based models.
“Why isn’t Bitcoin soaring? Because 50% are selling (traumatized OGs by 2021, technical investors looking at the RSI, 4-year cycle fans hoping for a 2-year bear after the halving) while the other 50% are buying (fundamental investors, TradFi, banks). An epic battle…until the sellers run out of bullets,” wrote analyst Plan B.
In contrast, institutional investors and traditional financial participants appear to be less concerned with short-term cycles. Their steady accumulation has helped absorb supply, but it is still not enough to take the market out of its range.
Adding to the uncertainty, macro analyst Luke Gromen recently revealed that he had sold a large portion of his Bitcoin position for nearly $95,000. Gromen cited long-term technical failures and systemic concerns.
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His decision, shared on Swann Bitcoin’s “No Second Best” podcast, reinforced the bearish outlook at a time when investor profitability was already under pressure.
Gromen pointed to concerns about weakening long-term momentum, Bitcoin’s failure to reach new highs versus gold, and broader market vulnerabilities heading into 2026.
Although Swan’s organizers pushed back on his conclusions, the sell-off itself resonated with investors who are seeing confidence wavering around key support levels.
High-profile exits tend to have a strong psychological impact, especially during times of price compression, and on-chain signals suggest declining profitability.
Will belief cross the line?
Bitcoin is currently at a crossroads defined more by determination than hype. If the price remains above $81,500 before the AVIV ratio stabilizes, it would indicate that investors are still willing to stick to the cost basis. This is a prerequisite for trend continuation.
However, failure can be costly. A decisive move below TMMP with further AVIV compression indicates that belief alone is no longer sufficient. Such measures would force the market to seek lower levels of demand.
