Pi Coin price is down about 1.5% today, but its 6.1% seven-day gain still outpaces other crypto markets. Bitcoin is still up about 15% this month, while Bitcoin is down nearly 20%. This shows how negatively correlated Pi is and is one of the reasons Pi continues to maintain a green candle even in weak conditions.
However, since November 17, the movement has been stuck in a narrow range between $0.24 and $0.22. The chart currently shows a narrow window of 4-5% where Pi Coin could move up or down depending on how some signals resolve.
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Large buyers continue to support the rebound
Pi Coin has one strong positive signal. That said, larger wallets continue to support this movement.
From November 19th to November 24th, the price of Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) made new highs. CMF measures whether large wallets are being added or exited. This is a bullish divergence and means that accumulation is occurring even as price slows down.
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CMF has also risen above the trend line and remains above zero. As long as it remains above that line, large wallet support will hold and the pullback will remain alive.
This is the only clear bullish signal that Pi Coin price has at the moment.
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Do you have weak retail strength and lack volume support?
Smaller buyers are not showing the same energy.
From November 21st to November 24th, Pi Coin price made higher lows, while Money Flow Index (MFI) made lower lows. MFI tracks the strength of buybacks using a combination of price and volume. This is a bearish divergence and indicates weakness in retail buying.
The same risks are confirmed quantitatively.
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On-balance trading volume (OBV) remains below the key trend line near -1.97 billion. OBV measures whether fresh volume is flowing into the market. Until it breaks above that trend line, PI does not have enough participation for a strong breakout. Additionally, a break below the uptrend line could further weaken volume support.
That means high wallets continue to be supported, but retail purchases remain weak. Volume remains neutral and could be an indicator determining Pi Coin’s next price movement.
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Pi coin price: 4% breakout or 5% breakout
For this recovery to turn into a real rally, the PI needs to break above $0.24. This level would require a 4.38% rally and would open the door to $0.26 and $0.29 on stronger volume.
However, bankruptcy is near. A fall below $0.22 exposes $0.21. A drop below $0.22 would be a 5.49% decline, consistent with a bearish MFI divergence and a neutral OBV.
Currently, Pi Coin is in a position where both outcomes are close to being equal.
CMF maintains its bounce and supports a 4% rally. MFI and OBV maintain downward pressure and are exposed to 5% risk.
If the pair can break through $0.24 cleanly, its strength will be confirmed. A significant drop below $0.22 confirms weakness. In any case, Pi Coin’s price range may collapse soon.
