BitMine Immersion Technologies has entered a high-risk stage as losses on its paper Ethereum holdings continue to worsen. While stocks have not been able to sustain their recent rebound, both technical and crypto-related signals indicate weakening confidence.
As of February 10th, BitMine’s total invested capital reached nearly $15 billion. The current portfolio value has decreased to approximately $7.7 billion.
On paper, this means that almost 49% of the investment value has disappeared. At the same time, Ethereum is trading near $1,950, while Bitmine’s realized cost basis is around $3,850. The price of ETH is almost 50% below average purchase levels, and most holdings remain deep underwater.
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Selling pressure due to cost-based losses and rising hidden divergence signals
BitMine’s biggest weakness is its shrinking margin of safety.
Realized prices indicate where companies have accumulated the majority of their Ethereum. If market prices remain far below this level, companies will be under pressure to reduce their exposure.
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Current data shows:
Average ETH cost base: $3,850 Current ETH price: $1,950 Unrealized loss: 49%
This leaves BitMine in a vulnerable position. Technical signals reinforce this risk.
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From November 18th to February 9th, BMNR formed lower highs on the daily chart, while the relative strength index formed higher highs. RSI tracks momentum by measuring the strength of buying and selling. A hidden bearish divergence is formed when price makes a lower high and RSI makes a higher high. This indicates that the force beneath the surface is weakening.
Selling resumed soon after this divergence appeared. BMNR has rebounded nearly 26% from its January lows. However, the gains have not been sustainable and are now at risk of a rebound due to divergence and rising cost base pressures.
Weak capital flows and crossover risks indicate waning confidence
Big bucks show early signs of hesitation. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) tracks whether large investors are accumulating or distributing. Values above zero usually indicate a buy. Values below zero indicate selling pressure.
From late November to early February, CMF trended upward despite falling prices. This shows long-term support, and it still remains. However, even during the recent 26% rally, CMF failed to break above the downtrend line. It was unable to make new highs or cross the zero line. This means that this rally did not have strong support from big money funds, and the current trend is still leaning towards big money exits.
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Moving averages add another caveat. The 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) is currently approaching the 200-day EMA. Exponential moving averages (EMAs) give more weight to recent prices, so they can help you spot trend changes early.
When the short-term average is below the long-term average, it often indicates more serious weakness. Prior to this, a bearish (death) crossover occurred on January 27th when the 50-day EMA fell below the 200-day EMA. After this signal, BMNR decreased by more than 44%.
If another bearish crossover forms, it could accelerate downside pressure, although it may not have the same impact as a deadly crossover. This risk increases if Ethereum remains weak. BMNR still shows a moderate correlation with ETH around 0.5.
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If ETH continues to decline, it could put direct pressure on the stock price.
BitMine’s key stock price levels indicate where the next stock price decline will begin
BitMine’s share price structure is now important as cost-based losses have widened. The most important short-term support is around $17, just over 10% from current levels. This level served as a baseline during recent consolidation.
If BMNR falls by $17, the downward momentum could increase rapidly.
Below this zone, the next support appears near $15. If that fails, the Fibonacci prediction points to the historically strong 0.618 retracement level at $11. A move towards $11 would represent a further decline of over 40% from current levels.
However, recovery remains difficult. To relieve the immediate pressure, BitMine stock needs to regain $21. This level matches the previous resistance value.
It is only above $21 that the short-term structure starts to improve. Further progress towards $26 would require an increase in Ethereum price and a huge new demand for capital. Both are undecided at this time. As long as ETH trades well below BitMine’s cost base and capital flows weaken, the rebound will likely face a heavy sell-off.
