Hedera’s HBAR has outperformed the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin and Ethereum are up about 2% in the past day, but today’s HBAR price is up nearly 10% in the past week and about 8% in the past 24 hours, and is trading near $0.096 at the time of writing.
This rally raised expectations for a breakout. However, momentum, volume, and derivatives data suggest risks are rising faster than conviction.
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Falling wedge breakout raises expectations, but also comes with risks
HBAR has been trading within a descending wedge pattern since late 2025.
Since early February, HBAR has rebounded from near the lower bound of this structure and moved higher toward the upper trendline near $0.098. This level has capped the price many times and is currently acting as a major resistance level.
If HBAR sustains above this zone, a wedge reading move would point to more than 50% upside from current levels. But that momentum is starting to wane. The relative strength index (RSI) measures the strength of buying and selling. As the RSI rises, momentum increases. When it weakens, its momentum also declines.
From February 6th to February 12th, HBAR struggled to break decisively above $0.098 and began to form a potential lower high. At the same time, the RSI continued to make new highs.
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This creates a hidden bearish divergence. It happens when prices fail to see any improvement momentum. It often indicates that buyers are approaching resistance.
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This does not indicate a trend reversal. However, it shows that the upside efficiency decreases as the price approaches the critical level. Once the current HBAR price candle reaches $0.098, the threat of divergence will be gone and the low-high theory will be invalidated.
Money flow and derivatives data show increased risk
Funding and leverage metrics reinforce this warning. One important indicator is Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). CMF combines price and volume to track large amounts of capital flowing into or out of an asset. If CMF is above zero, there is strong buying by institutional investors. If it remains below zero, major inflows are lost.
From December 31st to February 11th, HBAR’s CMF has been on an upward trend and the price has been on a downward trend. This divergence has underpinned the recent rebound. CMF also broke above the downtrend line. However, CMF is still below the zero line.
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This means that although the selling pressure has eased, the strong accumulation has not returned. This rally is still primarily driven by short-term traders rather than large wallets. Derivative data further increases risk. Open interest measures the total amount of active futures contracts. As it rises, leverage in the market increases.
Since February 11, HBAR’s open interest has increased from about $26.96 million to nearly $29.38 million, an increase of about 9% in one day. This rally occurred when the price approached resistance. At the same time, funding rates suddenly turned positive.
Funding changed from about -0.018 to nearly +0.05 within 24 hours. This indicates that long positions are being built rapidly. There is also a disconnect between price and leverage.
HBAR prices formed a local peak on February 8th and another peak on February 12th. The second peak is lower, indicating weaker price strength. However, open interest rose even higher during the same period. More leverage is entering the market even as price momentum weakens. This combination often occurs before a pullback. If leverage rises close to resistance and momentum weakens, even a small decline can trigger a liquidation.
Simply put, while the propensity to take risks has increased, confidence remains weak.
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Key levels will determine whether HBAR price breaks out or falls
Price levels are now paramount as optimism and participant weakness collide. The main upside driver remains $0.098.
This level coincides with wedge resistance and recent swing highs. A clean break and above will invalidate the bearish divergence and reduce liquidation risk. If this happens, HBAR could first target $0.107 and then the $0.145 zone, realizing the wedge target.
If this happens, it will be confirmed that real demand has returned. Until then, Larry remains vulnerable. On the downside, $0.090 is the first major support. This level was maintained many times during the recent stock price consolidation. A fall below this would likely trigger a prolonged liquidation.
On a break below $0.090, the next major support lies around $0.076. Moving into this zone will erase approximately 20% from the current level, indicating that the breakout attempt has failed.
