Monero prices have remained under pressure since mid-January, despite efforts by some in the crypto market to stabilize. After falling sharply until late January, XMR price found support near $276 on February 6 and has since risen slightly.
However, this recovery appears precarious. Chart patterns, weak buying, and mixed sentiment data suggest that Monero may still be headed for another deep decline.
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Bear Flag Breakdown and Weak Bullish Buying Puts Pressure on XMR
Since January 14th, Monero has been trading in a downward structure resembling a bearish pole-and-flag pattern. A bear flag is a short consolidation that forms after a sharp decline (ending on February 6th for XMR) and often indicates that a downtrend may continue.
After falling more than 60% from its peak in January, XMR has moved sideways and slightly upwards inside this flag. However, as of February 12th, the price started to fall below the lower bound, indicating a possible breakdown. This confirms a bearish breakdown as of this article unless some buyers are able to push XMR back inside the flag in the coming hours.
Momentum data shows that while bullish buying still exists, its strength remains limited. One useful indicator here is the Money Flow Index (MFI). MFI uses a combination of price and volume to track buying and selling pressure, helping to identify the strength of buy-to-the-trunk buys.
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Since February 1st, Monero MFI has been trending upward (high lows), while XMR has flattened out. This suggests that some investors are buying on the spur of the moment. However, MFI has not been able to break above the upper trend line or form a clear high price structure. This means that buying interest is present but not strong enough to reverse the weakness of the pattern.
Exchange flow data supports this view. After three days of slow inflows, Monero once again recorded net outflows on February 12th, with approximately $372,000 worth of XMR leaving the exchange. Negative net flows typically indicate increased buying pressure.
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This shows that there are still people buying. Simply put, push buying is active, but only weak.
Increased social interest cannot offset declines in positive emotions
Social data points to another key weakness in Monero’s current setup.
In recent days, Monero’s social dominance has started to grow. Social dominance measures how much attention a coin attracts compared to other cryptocurrency markets. When it increases, it means more people are talking about that asset.
Between February 11 and February 12, social control increased from approximately 0.046% to 0.066%. This shows that interest in Monero is picking up slightly after several weeks of decline. Historically, a rise in social activity has sometimes preceded a short-term price rebound.
For example, on January 12, social advantage jumped to nearly 0.92%. Within two days, Monero rose 25%. A similar pattern emerged on January 18th, when public interest increased ahead of another short-term price peak. However, the current rise in social control is much weaker than it was in the past. It remains well below February’s high of around 0.106 and well below January’s significant rise.
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More importantly, positive emotions are moving in the opposite direction. Positive emotions track how much of social discussion is optimistic rather than neutral or negative. Since February 9th, Monero’s positive sentiment score has dropped from approximately 27.26 to just 7.21, or 74%. This is a big decrease.
When the favorability rating exceeded 100 in January, it continued to rise strongly. Today, while social talk is booming, emotions are falling apart. This suggests that while people are talking about Monero, they are not speaking confidently and optimistically. Much of the discussion seems to be driven by concerns, speculation, and downside risks. This weak sentiment backdrop makes it difficult to maintain the recovery momentum in Monero prices.
Monero price level determining next leg
Due to technical weaknesses and weak demand, XMR’s price level is now more important than the story. On the upside, the most important resistance lies near $361, as discussed at the end of this section.
This level marks the center of the bear flag structure. A sustained move above $361 would signal that buyers are regaining control and the breakdown may be delayed. Not disabled. Downside risk remains dominant unless we recover beyond this zone.
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One small positive signal comes from the bullbear power indicator. This indicator compares buying strength and selling pressure to show which one is in the lead. The bearish strength is starting to weaken, even though the price has recently fallen below key supports. This suggests that sellers are losing some momentum.
If bearish pressure continues to subside and bearish buying remains active, buyers could try to delay the breakdown and push XMR back above $361.
On the downside, the first major support is near $308. This level has acted as a short-term downside several times in recent days. Below $308, the next key support lies near the February low at $276.
If both levels fail, the bear flag prediction points to the $135 area. This target almost perfectly mirrors the measured movement of the decline to date and represents the next major historical support zone.
