Dogecoin price may still hold clues as to whether meme coin season will return. Between February 6th and February 15th, Dogecoin rose approximately 47%. During the same period, meme coin market capitalization increased by approximately 43%. This shows that Dogecoin is still moving forward in tandem with the broader sector and continues to lead it.
Currently, the two closest meme coins, BONK and Shiba Inu, have already formed a breakout pattern. Their next move may depend on whether Dogecoin confirms its own bullish structure. The correlation, holder behavior, and price structure taken together suggest that Dogecoin remains an important signal in the memecoin cycle.
BONK and Shiba Inu are already showing breakout structure
Currently, BONK and Shiba Inu have a very high correlation with Dogecoin. Correlation measures how closely assets work together.
A correlation of 1 means they behave approximately the same. Over the past month, the correlation between BONK and Dogecoin has reached 0.99. Shiba Inu reached around 0.97 to 0.99 in weekly and monthly time frames.
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Therefore, price structure is important as an early signal.
BONK is forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart. This pattern is formed when sellers lose power and buyers gradually take control. The breakout level is near $0.0000075. If BONK breaks above this level, the pattern predicts a move towards $0.000010, which would be about a 43% upside from the neckline.
This pattern weakens below $0.0000063 and expires below $0.0000051.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) is forming a bullish flag pattern. A bullish flag occurs when the price rises and then pauses before continuing higher. The breakout level is near $0.0000069. If Shiba Inu crosses this level, it could rally towards $0.0000099, which represents an increase of 43%.
A decline below $0.0000057 could bring us closer to invalidating the SHIB breakout theory. However, these breakouts may still be dependent on Dogecoin confirming its own direction.
Memecoin market capitalization still follows Dogecoin
The broader memecoin market continues to mirror Dogecoin’s movements.
From February 6th to February 15th, meme coin market capitalization increased by approximately 43%. Dogecoin’s price rose even more slightly, increasing by 47% during the same period.
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Even after the recent decline, memecoin’s market cap has only lost about 12.5%, retaining most of its gains. This indicates that the overall cycle has weakened but has not collapsed.
Dogecoin still dominates the memecoin sector, with a market capitalization of nearly $17 billion at the time of writing, accounting for over 50% of the total memecoin market. Because of this dominance, Dogecoin often determines whether a memecoin rally grows or wanes.
For this reason, the structure of Dogecoin itself is the most important signal.
The holder and the whale calmly position themselves again.
On-chain data shows that short-term traders are exiting, while powerful holders are increasing their control.
One important indicator is the age band of the used coin. This measures the number of coins used over various holding periods. Movement in these coins often means that the holder population is selling. A decline in this indicator indicates inactive holdings by holders.
This metric decreased sharply from 461 million coins to 168 million coins, a decrease of approximately 64%. Similar declines have occurred near local bottoms before.
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for example:
On February 10, this indicator reached a regional low. After that, Dogecoin’s price increased by about 22% in four days. Another local low occurred on January 26th. Dogecoin price rose about 6% within two days.
Another indicator called HODL Waves indicates how long an investor will hold a coin. The share of short-term holders, who hold coins for 1-3 months, decreased from 10.41% to 5.70%, a decrease of about 45%. This indicates that speculative traders have withdrawn.
Meanwhile, more powerful holders have increased their exposure. Coins held for 6-12 months increased by 7% from 10.48% to 11.22%. This shows increased confidence.
Whales were also gathering. The wallet holding over 1 billion DOGE (the largest whale) increased its holdings from 70.56 billion coins to 70.84 billion coins, adding about 280 million coins.
This change indicates that stronger hands are replacing weaker hands.
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Dogecoin price pattern holds the key to meme coin season signals
Despite the recent 13% decline, Dogecoin’s price structure remains bullish. On the 12-hour chart, Dogecoin is forming a cup-and-handle pattern. This pattern often appears before a continuation rally.
The cup formed from late January to early February. The current pullback forms the handle. Importantly, the handle support near $0.103 remains intact, indicating that buyers are still active. The key breakout level is currently located near $0.117, which also provides resistance to the downslope neckline.
If Dogecoin rises above $0.117, the pattern predicts a move towards $0.180, representing an increase of approximately 50% per pattern projection. Confirming this, the Smart Money Index, which tracks the activity of experienced investors, remains above the signal line. This suggests that large investors are not leaving.
However, the risk remains. The pattern will weaken if Dogecoin dips below $0.098. The bullish structure will be invalidated if the price breaks below $0.091.
For now, Dogecoin price continues to hold the strongest clues of meme coin season. BONK and Shiba Inu are already set up for a breakout.
However, whether these breakouts fully develop may depend on whether Dogecoin confirms its own move first.
