Hedera (HBAR), like other major altcoins including ETH and BNB, failed to record decent gains in October (“Uptober”). The token has fallen nearly 6% in the past 24 hours, showing increasing weakness on shorter time frames. Even with an increase of 1.4% over the past 7 days, the overall HBAR price trend is not yet completely bullish.
Nevertheless, large holders continue to add to their holdings even as overall market sentiment remains cautious.
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Whales accumulate as smart money retreats
On-chain data shows a clear divide between long-term whale accumulation and short-term trader caution.
Addresses over 10 million HBAR increased from 129.18 to 130.96, and wallets over 100 million HBAR increased from 38.46 to 39.56 since October 6th.
This equates to a minimum of approximately 127.8 million HBAR added by the whales and approximately $26.8 million at current HBAR prices.
This quiet buying from whales often indicates accumulation amid uncertainty and can help prevent a sharp sell-off. But the optimism stops there.
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The Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks the activity of historically successful traders, was flat after falling from its local peak on October 6. This means that confident investors are no longer expecting a quick rebound in HBAR prices.
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Such a divergence between whale accumulation and smart money pullbacks usually signals a period of sideways or downward movement.
Simply put, whales may be buying on the long term, but the absence of active smart money means a short-term price recovery is unlikely.
HBAR price chart shows rising wedge risk
On the 12-hour chart, HBAR is trading within an ascending wedge pattern, which is usually considered bearish. The price is testing the lower trendline around $0.21, an important support zone that has been held numerous times since late September.
If the price breaks above $0.21, the next downside price targets are $0.20 and $0.19, which could lead to a 10% decline from current levels. The zone around $0.20 could provide temporary support, but $0.19 remains an important level to watch.
In addition to this, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator, which compares the strength of buyers and sellers, has turned red again. A correction occurred following the last red shift on September 4th, after which bulls successfully made a brief recovery.
For now, the bears continue to rule. A daily or 12-hour candlestick that closes above $0.23 will invalidate this bearish structure and signal new strength.
Until that happens, HBAR’s best hope for avoiding a more severe correction lies in continued whale accumulation and a shift in sentiment from smart money.
