When Donald Trump returned to the White House, many in the crypto market expected a familiar playbook. Pro-crypto rhetoric, friendlier regulation, inflows of capital from institutional investors, and new risk appetite should all have combined to create a clear bull market.
Instead, as 2025 draws to a close, the crypto market is ending the year with a significant drop, remaining at just 20% of its Biden-era peak.
Even under the Trump administration, the virtual currency market is only 20% of the level it was during the Biden era.
This contradiction is at the heart of the debate over whether cryptocurrencies are in trouble, or whether something more fundamentally is broken.
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“It’s time to acknowledge and acknowledge that the crypto market is broken,” said analyst and Crypto Banter host Ran Neuner.
The analyst highlighted the unprecedented disconnect between fundamentals and prices. According to Neuner, 2025 “had everything needed for a bull market.”
“Even with all of the above, we’re going to end up in 2025 with less than 20% of where we were with Biden,” Neuner said.
This suggests that traditional explanations no longer hold. Theories about four-year cycles, locked-in liquidity, or crypto IPO moments increasingly feel more like after-the-fact rationalizations than true answers.
According to Neuner, that leaves only two avenues for the market.
Either hidden structural sellers or mechanisms are suppressing prices, or cryptocurrencies are setting up what he calls “the mother of all catch-up trades” as the market eventually returns to equilibrium.
Not everyone agrees that something is broken
Market commentator Gordon Gecko, a popular X user, disputed this, arguing that the pain was intentional and structural, but not dysfunctional.
“Nothing is broken. This is exactly what the market makers intended. Sentiment is at its lowest in years. Leveraged traders are losing everything. It’s not going to be easy. Only the strong will be rewarded,” he wrote.
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This split reflects a deeper change in the behavior of cryptocurrencies compared to previous cycles. During President Trump’s first term, from 2017 to 2020, cryptocurrencies thrived in a regulatory vacuum.
Retail speculation prevailed, leverage went unchecked, and reflexive momentum drove prices up well above their fundamental values.
In contrast, under the Biden administration, markets have been institutionalized. Enforcement-driven regulations have limited risk-taking, while ETFs, custodians, and compliance frameworks have reshaped capital allocation and flows.
Ironically, many of the most anticipated tailwinds for cryptocurrencies have come during this more constrained era.
Although the ETF unlocked access, it was primarily allocated to Bitcoin institutions, but was often mechanically hedged and rebalanced. Liquidity existed, but it flowed into the TradFi wrapper rather than the on-chain ecosystem.
The result is a non-reflective scale.
Bitcoin holds as altcoins disrupt new crypto system
This structural shift has been particularly painful for altcoins, especially as analysts and KOLs like Shanaka Anslem argue that there is no longer a unified crypto market.
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Instead, 2025 was split into “two games.”
Institutional Cryptocurrencies: Low volatility, long-term Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETFs, and hot cryptocurrencies: Millions of tokens compete for fleeting liquidity, and most collapse within days.
Capital no longer rotates smoothly from Bitcoin to alt, colloquial altcoin season, or alt season. It flows directly into the mission it is designed to fulfill.
“…your only options now are to play Institutional Crypto with patience and macro awareness. Or play Attention Crypto with speed and infrastructure,” Anslem wrote.
According to this opinion leader, holding an altcoin for several months based on a thesis is the worst possible strategy right now.
“You’re still early in the alt season. You’re waiting for a market structure that no longer exists,” he added.
Perhaps this is the basis of the trader’s belief that he knows where to look. Lisa Edwards supports this theory and calls on market participants to understand liquidity flows.
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“Things change, cycles change, money moves in new ways, and if you wait for the old alternative season, you’re going to miss out on what’s actually running right in front of you,” she said.
Quinten François echoed that view, pointing out that the number of tokens in 2025 dwarfs previous cycles. With over 11 million tokens in existence, the idea of a broad alternative season similar to 2017 or 2021 may simply be outdated.
Between repricing and recovery: the post-institutionalization test of cryptocurrencies
Meanwhile, macro pressures continue to weigh on sentiment. Nick Pucklin, an investment analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, said Bitcoin’s decline toward its 100-week moving average (MA) reflects new AI bubble concerns, uncertainty over future Fed leadership, and year-end tax loss selling.
“All of this makes for a lackluster end to 2025,” he said in an email to BeInCrypto, warning that if the sell-off accelerates, BTC could briefly drop below $80,000.
Whether cryptocurrencies are broken or just changing is anyone’s guess, and investors should do their own research.
Nevertheless, what is clear is that Trump-era expectations are colliding with Biden-era market structures and old strategies no longer apply.
Discussions between economists and investors on mainstream desks suggest a brutal re-pricing or a violent catch-up rally that could define the identity of cryptocurrencies post-institutionalization.
