On Friday, Bitcoin fell to $94,000, heading toward a year-to-date low of $76,000 as fears of further liquidations grew. BTC is facing increasing downward pressure after falling below its 365-day moving average, the level that defines support for the current bullish cycle.
This breakdown has reignited concerns of a larger correction, especially as key on-chain cost base levels are showing early signs of stress.
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Will the price of Bitcoin fall below $90,000?
The 365-day moving average, currently near $102,000, has served as Bitcoin’s primary structural floor since late 2023.
Bitcoin’s failure to recover it this week mirrors the pattern seen in December 2021, when repeated rejections at this level signaled the start of a 2022 bear market.
However, broader market conditions suggest a mid-cycle reset rather than a full macro top. Liquidity conditions remain fragile, with ETF flows turning negative and long-term holders taking out distributions at the fastest pace since early 2024.
Still, the 365-day average loss remains large.
Historically, a few weeks of closes below this line triggers a deeper retracement. If the decline continues, there is a high possibility that it will head below $90,000.
On-chain data enhances this risk. The realized price for Bitcoin holders who entered between 6 and 12 months ago is nearly $94,600.
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This group has accumulated significant assets during periods of ETF-driven rallies, and its cost base often acts as the first capitulation zone in bull markets.
On Friday, Bitcoin briefly traded below this threshold, leaving many of these holders with unrealized losses.
Similar breaks occurred in both 2017-2018 and 2021-2022. Each period saw prices fall below a 6-12 month cost basis range followed by an extended period of decline.
This trend suggests increasing pressure on recent buyers, increasing the likelihood of a deeper reset.
Long-range periodic data provide additional context. Bitcoin bull cycles have shown repeated mid-cycle corrections of 25% to 40%.
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Using a 2025 peak around $125,000, a typical decline would place Bitcoin between $75,000 and $93,000. These drawdown levels closely match the current technical and on-chain floors.
As a result, analysts see three major zones forming.
Major Bitcoin price levels to watch
The initial support amount is between $92,000 and $95,000, matching the 6-12 month cost basis and recent ETF inflow levels. This area may be the first point of reaction.
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However, a stronger correction could push Bitcoin into the $85,000 to $90,000 range, which is consistent with a typical mid-cycle decline of 25% to 30%.
The bearish scenario goes even deeper. If ETF outflows accelerate and the macro environment worsens, Bitcoin could retest the $75,000-$82,000 zone.
This represents a 35%-40% drawdown from the cycle high and is consistent with previous mid-cycle resets. Barring a major liquidity shock, a fall below $70,000 remains unlikely.
Despite recent weakness, Bitcoin has not shown any blown ceilings or structural depletion patterns. This suggests that the current move is part of a broader consolidation within the bull market, rather than the start of a new multi-year downtrend.
For now, Bitcoin’s ability to regain its 365-day moving average will determine the depth of the correction.
A quick recovery would ease selling pressure and reduce the chance of a dip below $90,000.
However, if the rejection continues, the mid-cycle support zone is likely to be tested deeper.
